We are halfway through the Raptors vs. Nets 1st Round Eastern Conference Quarterfinal battle, and everything has gone according to plan. At times the Raptors youth has overwhelmed the Nets, and at other times the Brooklyn players' experience has given them the edge. Nevertheless, we are deadlocked at 2-2 headed back to Toronto for Game 5.
As was the case in the regular season, each team has proven capable of winning in the other's building. None of the games have been pretty. Each team has grinded out wins by making a few more big plays down the stretch than their opponent.
I would like to use Game 4 to explain how in NBA Basketball, teams, especially great shooting ones like the Raptors, typically shoot a percentage in the 40s. Teams will go through runs of shooting both well and poorly, but in the end, it all averages out. I call this "The NBA Law of Averages."
Let me explain further:
In the 1st quarter, the Raptors shot above 60%. This cannot be maintained in NBA Basketball no matter who you are playing. It is extremely rare that a team shoots near 60% for a game, especially one on the road in the Playoffs. Based on my years of experience, "The NBA Law of Averages" tells us that this hot shooting cannot be maintained.
In the 2nd quarter, the Raptors shooting faltered and they scored only 16 points in the quarter. This was bound to happen due to Toronto's hot start. No team can maintain the kind of shooting Toronto displayed in the 1st quarter.
In the 3rd quarter, the Raptors continued their poor shooting. The offence went cold, and the Nets pounced and took a 5 point lead. The Raptors quickly recovered with back to back buckets, and they finished a poor shooting 3rd quarter tied 67-67. This was a great sign as a Raptors fan. Based on my knowledge of "The NBA Law of Averages," I knew the Raptors were in a great position to win the game. They had shot terribly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, scoring just 16 points in each. Yet, I knew, at some point, this would turn around.
In the 4th quarter, as the Raptors had done all season, they made the key shots when they mattered most, and the Raptors pulled away for a 87-79 victory. They were bound to make shots at this juncture in the game because they hadn't done so since the 1st quarter.
Basketball is a game of runs. Teams get hot, teams get cold. But in the end, "The NBA Law of Averages" almost always rings true.
-Wes
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