Tuesday, 29 April 2014

PLAYOFF PARITY


We are a week into the NBA Playoffs and nothing has gone according to plan. The road teams have a 19-14 record thus far. The once unbeatable Pacers, who started the season at 18-2, cannot hit a shot to save their lives, and Roy Hibbert has disappeared. The Kings of the West, the San Antonio Spurs, who regained their near championship form from last season, are in a battle with a Dallas Mavericks team they swept during the regular season. The parity in these playoffs has led me to several conclusions:

1. The Regular Season means nothing. OK…not literally nothing…but practically. The Portland Trail Blazers started the season extremely well in a difficult Western Conference. As the season went on, they appeared to tire, and an injury to their best player, LaMarcus Aldridge, caused the team to fall into the 5th seed in the West. The team had lost the momentum of their hot start, and were forced into a difficult matchup with the star studded Houston Rockets. The Rockets won the season series 3-1. Houston appeared in control of Game 1, with a 10 point lead and only a few minutes left to play. But, thanks to the amazing shooting of both LaMarcus Aldridge and Sophomore PG Damian Lillard, the Blazers fought back and eventually won the game in OT. Since then, the Blazers have made every big play necessary to win them 3 out of the first 4 games. The Blazers have their momentum back and are fighting on every defensive possession. While few picked the Blazers to win this series, they are poised to make a deep playoff run. 

The Dallas Mavericks entered the playoffs playing as well as an 8th seed can. Despite their position, they won 49 games. Yet, they were matched up with a San Antonio Spurs team that swept them 4-0 in the regular season. Interestingly, the talent difference in these teams is minor, but many assumed the fluid play of the Spurs would be too much for the Mavericks to handle. The Mavericks, though, have proved all doubters wrong. Their mental toughness, led by 2011 Championship MVP Dirk Nowitzki, has allowed them to hang with the Spurs on both ends, and has carried them to a 2-2 series tie thus far.

2. The Playoffs are about matchups. A team's regular season record and subsequent Playoff seeding become irrelevant once the ball is tipped for the Playoffs. Only one of the higher seeded "favourites" (The Miami Heat) currently have a lead in their series (The Heat swept the Bobcats 4-0 last night). The Toronto Raptors play better as a team than the Brooklyn Nets, but Brooklyn's experience allows them to hang with Toronto. Houston, with 2 superstars, appeared to have the edge over Portland. But, Wes Matthews' lockdown defence, and LaMarcus Aldridge's active help defence has forced James Harden into a terrible shooting series. San Antonio won a league leading 62 games, but are in a dogfight with the battle tested Dallas Mavericks. 

3. There is an advantage to being the lower seed in the Playoffs. As mentioned prior, 7 of the 8 lower seeded "Underdogs" are tied or winning their series'. It is generally believed that the goal of the Road Team is to steal 1 of the first 2 games in the opponent's building. If the "Underdog" is then able to arrive home with the series tied 1-1, they have the advantage of potentially winning both home games and taking a commanding 3-1 series lead. The other added advantage of being the Road Team is the lack of pressure. The Home Team bears the burden of winning both home games, without having figured out their opponent's schemes. The "Underdog," after stealing 1 of 2 Road Games, then gets to arrive home with 2 Playoff Games of film to help them maintain their Home Court advantage. Lastly, the mentally tough Playoff teams, the Champions, love to win on the road and quiet the crowd, as Paul Pierce did in Game 1 in Toronto.

Can any of these "Underdogs" actually finish off their higher seeded opponents? Only time will tell if this parity is an illusion. 

-Wes

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