Tomorrow is the 2014 NBA Draft. As such, here is my 1st round Mock Draft. These are what I think teams will do, not what I would do.
Let me take this time to bring up my quarrels with the NBA Draft process. I fully expect teams to make irrational mistakes like drafting Noah Vonleh over Julius Randle. That is why the same teams end up here every year. Managers fail to realize that these guys actually have to play the game, no matter what their measurements and analytics say.
Side note on Dante Exum: Has he looked great in what we've seen of him? Hell yeah! But, do we have a large enough sample size for him to be picked top 3 in a loaded draft? Hell no! Just pick Randle! He is a guaranteed 20/10 guy! He has proven it in a number of games on the biggest stage in college basketball. O.K., now that's my rant. I love Randle, now onto my mock…and this is assuming there are no trades, unless I've said the pick will be traded.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas.
Nobody knows where the Cavaliers are going with this pick. It has been rumoured that owner Dan Gilbert and the team's front office are at odds as to who to draft: Wiggins or Parker. I think Parker is a more polished offensive player at the moment, but Wiggins is special. You have to take the best athlete to come into the league in years, and expect he will pan out. Plenty of "Draft Experts" have compared Wiggins ceiling to Paul George, but I believe he will be a lot better than that. Whether the Cavs keep the pick, or trade it (the Magic offer of Afflalo, and picks 4 and 12 is intriguing), Wiggins is the guy.
2. Milwaukee Bucks - Jabari Parker, SF, Duke.
Parker showed a complete offensive arsenal this past season at Duke. While Parker reminds most of a combination between Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony, we saw Parker play against a number of zones as Duke's Power Forward or Center. In the NBA, Parker is a Small Forward, or stretch Power Forward. We know he can hit open shots and beat ACC frontlines to the punch, but can he do it against NBA level athletes, particularly at a stacked Small Forward position, with some of the league's best offensive and defensive players? (LeBron, Durant, George, Leonard, Carmelo) I have no doubt he can, but he will have to be hidden, at least for now, on defence against those top flight players. Nevertheless, Parker has a natural feel for scoring, and once he trims down, he will surely be a 20 point scorer for years to come.
3. Philadelphia 76ers - Dante Exum, PG, Australia.
Exum is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. We have seen him play Junior Basketball for Australia, and look fantastic in a Nike Hoop Summit loaded with talent. The Sixers appear to want to move their current Point Guard prospect Michael Carter-Williams, and I expect them to do so, replacing him with Exum. Word is Exum has a poor shooting stroke, but his off-the-chart athletic testing makes up for that. Particularly, in the Nike Hoop Summit, he showed a rare combination of basketball IQ and fluidity that has made some compare him to Penny Hardaway, and even Kobe. While I would avoid Exum and draft what I believe to be a sure thing in Randle, this is a make or break pick for a General Manager.
4. Orlando Magic - Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana.
I don't like this pick. But, I don't trust the Magic, and expect them to make a bad decision. Vonleh's size and athletic testing rocketed him up draft boards. He appears to have a similar frame as Chris Bosh. But, Vonleh, on an average Indiana team, failed to show a killer instinct. He appears to be too soft of a kid to pan out. I would compare him to drafting Marvin Williams, as he possesses the physical attributes teams are looking for, but has yet to actually go out on the court and make it happen. While his jump shot has excited many teams, I believe, from watching his workouts, he possesses bad form. He is certainly capable of proving me wrong, but I would rather draft a player that has proven their value at a high level of NCAA ball.
5. Utah Jazz - Aaron Gordon, SF, Arizona.
From listening to David Locke's podcast, the Jazz appeared to like Gordon. Everyone is raving about his personality and work ethic. Here is the problem: he can't shoot. Gordon, and some teams, have said his shooting stroke has been fixed. Gordon is a freak athlete and glue guy capable of guarding almost any position on defence. Because of his lack of shooting ability, though, this is a high risk, high reward pick. If Gordon pans out, he can become the next Shawn Marion. But, if he cannot fix his shot, he may face the same future as Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The NBA is relying increasingly on shooting, and Gordon needs to be able to hit open jumpers to stay out on the floor.
6. Boston Celtics - Joel Embiid, C, Kansas.
I really have no idea where Embiid goes. It is very possible he goes as high as 3, but I can't see him slipping past Boston here. Ainge, and Boston super fan Bill Simmons, would be ecstatic acquiring this type of asset. Embiid was all but certain to become the top pick of the draft, until it was revealed he had broken navicular bone in his foot. This is another high risk, high reward pick, as since Greg Oden, every team is deadly afraid of drafting an injury plagued Centre.
7. Los Angeles Lakers - Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky.
The Lakers are a smart organization. Word was their workout with Randle went extremely well. Randle is a killer, a Kobe type of player. He can come in immediately, start, and be effective for the Lakers. It is absolutely insane that Randle could fall this far, that is how deep this draft is. Randle was consistently double and triple teamed in the post this past year, and still found ways to score and grab offensive boards. Once he proves he can make the 15 footer in the NBA, which I believe is already in his offensive arsenal, he will be impossible to stop. I expect Randle to be a 20/10 guy in the league, and could end up being the best player out of this draft. I pray teams aren't stupid enough to draft Vonleh over him, but ANYTHING IS POSSSIBBLLLEE!!!!
8. Sacramento Kings - Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State.
Smart appears to be the Kings top target. He has great size for a Point Guard, but his lack of shooting ability scares me. Nevertheless, if he can fix his jumpshot, he has incredible potentially because of his 2-way game. Smart, at worst, can become a lockdown defender for the Kings, and could potentially play Shooting Guard. I don't believe Smart is the leader everyone thinks he is because of his lack of success with Oklahoma State these past two seasons, playing alongside NBA prospects Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash. It is also possible the Kings deal this pick for a proven Point Guard. One thing is certain from watching their Draft 3.0 video, they are immediately focused on finding a starting Point Guard.
9. Charlotte Hornets - Doug McDermott, SF, Creighton.
Word out of Charlotte is that they are desperate for a shooter to space the floor, and their selection is down to Doug McDermott and Nik Stauskas. While Stauskas will have a great career as a lights out shooter, McDermott has more potential, as the leading scorer in the NCAA this past season. McDermott shot 45% from three this past season, and if all else fails, he will always be able to stretch the floor for the Hornets.
10. Philadelphia 76ers - Zach LaVine, SG, UCLA.
This pick may depend on who the 76ers draft 3rd overall. Philly is in full-on rebuild mode, and drafting LaVine, a player with enormous upside, makes a whole lot of sense. LaVine is raw, but he is an insane athlete with a good shooting stroke. From watching Terrence Ross these past 2 seasons in Toronto, that is a pretty deadly combination. Getting LaVine, who has one of the highest ceilings in this draft, at 10, is a real win for Hinkie. A backcourt of Exum and LaVine has unlimited potential.
11. Denver Nuggets - Dario Saric, SF, Croatia.
Saric just signed a 3 year deal with Turkish Club Anadolu Efes, and is ineligible to enter the NBA for another 2 years. The good news is that he has confirmed he will come to the NBA for the 2016/17 season. Saric has an amazing all around game. He is essentially a Point-Forward, similar to Hedo Turkoglu, but with more athleticism. Despite having to wait for 2 years, Saric has enormous potential, and this is a great value pick for the Nuggets at 11.
12. Orlando Magic - Elfrid Payton Jr., PG, Louisiana Lafayette.
After missing out on Dante Exum, and deciding against Marcus Smart with their first pick, the Magic want a PG here. They want a true Point Guard to pair with Victor Oladipo. Elfrid Payton Jr. is the perfect pick. Payton has great size for a PG. He is an amazing defender and competitor. His shooting needs some serious work, but his ability to get to the rim and create for teammates with ease makes him an easy choice for the Magic here.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves - Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan.
I have heard the Timberwolves are looking for a shooter, and here they get the best pure shooter to enter the league in years. Stauskas is a lights out shooter, and also a great ball handler. He can contribute immediately, whether he starts or comes off the bench, and can play either guard position. Stauskas has unlimited confidence in his abilities, and may very well become a great all around scorer.
14. Phoenix Suns - Clint Capela, C, Switzerland.
This pick is predicated on the Suns resigning Channing Frye. If the Suns fail to re-sign Frye, I expect them to draft Payne here. The Suns need a shot blocker, and here they take Clint Capela, an extremely long athlete with elite shot-blocking timing. The Suns, who play one big at the basket, can bring in Capela as a backup for Miles Plumlee, and continue to space the floor with shooters around him. Capela fits nicely with the Suns signature run and gun offence.
15. Atlanta Hawks - Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State.
If you watched a minute of the Hawks this season, you saw a lot of threes being launched. Here the Hawks get the prospect they dreamed of. Harris is an excellent three point shooter, and all around two way player. Harris has good feel for the game and he has potential to become a Bradley Beal type of player.
16. Chicago Bulls - Rodney Hood, SF, Duke.
The Bulls are looking to use their picks as the main assets to move up in the draft and grab a shooter, or potentially land a star. If the Bulls keep the pick, I expect them to draft Hood, who has a great shooting stroke, and can provide a much needed scoring punch off the bench. While this is a relatively safe pick, I don't like Hood because of his lack of potential. I don't see Hood being a good NBA player.
17. Boston Celtics - James Young, SF, Kentucky.
Here Ainge makes another great pick. Young is, well, young, but has loads of potential. He has a smooth stroke, and is a good athlete, capable of getting to the rim. His defined shooting skill will allow him to play immediately, but he has real potential to be a great player in the league. With Embiid and Young, Ainge has two great assets to move forward with, or package for a star player.
18. Phoenix Suns - Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State.
A big that can stretch the floor? Exactly what the Suns wanted! If the Suns lose Frye, then they can't risk losing out on Payne, and draft him at 14. But, assuming they do re-sign him, they can draft Capela with the 14th pick, and hope Payne falls here. Payne has a great inside-outside game, and, like Frye, can actually defend the post. I trust Tom Izzo to have his players ready for the league, and Payne can come in and contribute from Day 1.
19. Chicago Bulls - Shabazz Napier, PG, Connecticut.
Prediction: The Bulls trade this pick to Miami. Napier carried UConn to the NCAA title this past season. Napier has it all, but because teams believe the draft is about potential, and, as a senior, his potential has been tapped, he falls to 19. Napier can contribute immediately as a backup PG, and has starting PG potential. Having averaged 6 rebounds and 5 assists in his senior season, Napier has great feel for the game. With his championship pedigree he will be a welcome addition to the Heat's roster.
20. Toronto Raptors - Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA.
I think my Raptors draft board looks like this:
1. Capela
2. Payne
3. Anderson
4. Ennis
5. Clarkson.
This is just a guess, but I think they loved Capela, and know they need a shot blocker. Assuming Capela and Payne don't fall here, I think they go with Anderson. Anderson is a unique Point-Forward type player, with great rebounding and passing skills. I do not know what position he will play in the NBA, but he will definitely keep the ball moving. Despite knocks on his athleticism, his size, potentially as a backup Point Guard, can make up for it. While I personally want to see the Raptors draft P.J. Hairston or Glenn Robinson III, this is who I believe the Raptors will take.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder - P.J. Hairston, SG, Texas Legends.
I have Hairston being drafted here because he provides a need, whether the Thunder keep this pick or trade it to the Knicks. Hairston would provide a much needed scoring and shooting punch for the Russell Westbrook fast break and Kevin Durant isolation squad. Hairston is one of my favourite players in the Draft. He is a great scorer, with long range, and a strong build. He plays with swagger, and I have no doubt he can be a star in the NBA.
22. Memphis Grizzlies - T.J. Warren, SF, North Carolina State.
Warren provides a much needed scoring punch for the Grizzlies. Warren is not a great shooter, but has a special scoring touch. Reports have said Warren is crushing everyone in workouts, and sometimes guys, like Paul Pierce, just have a natural knack for scoring. If he falls here, the Grizzlies have to pounce on him, as he has star potential.
23. Utah Jazz - Jordan Clarkson, PG, Missouri
Clarkson has great size for a PG, and could potentially play SG. He is a Russell Westbrook type of player, though obviously not that caliber of athlete. Clarkson has great athleticism for his size. From the few games I watched of Clarkson this past season, he appears to have it all. This is a great value pick for the Jazz, drafting a player with loads of potential.
24. Charlotte Hornets - C.J. Wilcox, SG, Washington.
As mentioned earlier, the Hornets are seeking shooters, and Wilcox fits the bill. Wilcox was a great shooter at Washington, and can defend the position well. He can immediately contribute off the bench for the Hornets.
25. Houston Rockets - K.J. McDaniels, SF, Clemson.
The Rockets need a special type of wing defender to make up for James Harden's lack of defensive effort/ability. Bringing in McDaniels, a Small Forward who can block shots, and truly impact the game on the defensive end, would be a welcome addition.
26. Miami Heat - Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan.
Glenn Robinson III is a Miami Heat type of player. He has good size and athleticism to be able to switch on pick and rolls, and his three point shooting capability make him perfect for spacing the floor for the Heat's star players. Robinson would effectively be picking up his role from his Freshman season on Michigan, having played alongside ball dominant guards Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr.
27. Phoenix Suns - Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse.
I believe Ennis will be "the player" who falls in this year's Draft. Ennis has great feel for the game, but lacks the shooting and physical tools to be a great NBA player. He will be able to run a team, though, and will be seen as a steal here at 27 for the Suns (or whoever they draft for here).
28. Los Angeles Clippers - Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia.
Everyone knows the Clippers need help with their big man rotation. Nurkic, who is being discussed as a potential pick in the teens, is a monster, and has good scoring touch around the rim. This would be a steal for the Clippers.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jordan Adams, SG, UCLA.
The Thunder need some help in the backcourt. With Sefolosha aging, Reggie Jackson should be given increased minutes, and we may see more Jackson-Westbrook backcourts than in the past. As such, the Thunder can bring in Adams, an effective scorer, who can bring immediate help off the bench.
30. San Antonio Spurs - Damien Inglis, SF, France.
Of course this happens. The Spurs, notorious for finding great value wherever they draft, find another European stud.At only 19 years of age, Inglis is an all around player that plays both sides of the ball well. He has good size, athleticism, and strength. He will fit in well with the Spurs system. He is what we can now label a "typical" French Small Forward (Diaw, Batum). While Inglis needs to improve his shooting, he has solid form, and with the help of the Spurs coaching staff, that shouldn't be a problem fixing.
Welp, that does it folks! Can't wait to see how wrong I am.
-Wes
